Evaluation of Wavelet - Based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence form Peru

Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identification of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called core inflation measures”. In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of wavelet-based core inflation measures (WIMs) is relatively new in the literature and their assessment has not been addressed formally, this paper being the first attempt to perform both tasks for the case of Peru. Another main contribution of this paper is that it proposes two alternative criteria for evaluating core inflation measures: (i) a VAR-based long-run criterion, and (ii) forecast-based criteria. Evidence from Peru shows that WIMs are superior in terms of long-run performance, and that they could improve short-term (up-to-6-months) inflation forecasts.

Keywords
Core inflation, Forecast, Structural VAR, Wavelets

JEL Classification

C12 C22