Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application Using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model

This paper discusses the evolution of monetary policy (MP) in Peru in 1996Q1-2016Q4 using a mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) as proposed by Koop et al. (2009). The main empirical results are: (i) the VAR coefficients and volatilities change more gradually than the covariance errors over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks was higher under the pre- Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) a surprise increase in the interest rate produces GDP growth falls and reduces inflation in the long run; (iv) the interest rate reacts more quickly to aggregate supply (AS) shocks than to aggregate demand (AD) shocks; (v) MP shocks explain a high percentage of domestic variable behavior under the pre-IT regime but their contribution decreases under the IT regime.

Keywords

Bayesian Estimation, Mixture Innovation Model, Monetary Policy, Peruvian Economy, TVP-VAR-SV

JEL Classification

C11 , C32 , E52