The New Keynesian Framework for a Small Open Economy with Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from Peru

We present evidence from Peru that The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Dynamic IS and Taylor Rule derived by Galí and Monacelli (2005) are unstable. The results from methodology of Bai and Perron (2003) suggest that the change of the policy rule (January-2006 and May-2009) induces a break in the inflation process (January-2008) and in the market equation (October-2008); the latter due to the existence of nominal frictions and incomplete information in the Peruvian economy. Moreover, Qu and Perron (2007) estimation reaffirms that there are breaks in the entire reduced system (May-2008 and  May-2010). In both cases, the channel of expectations is strengthened since 2008 and it is related to changes in the monetary policy during those years.

Keywords

Structural Breaks, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Dynamic IS, Taylor Rule.

JEL Classification

C32, C51, E31