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¿Los ingresos provenientes de recursos naturales pueden debilitar la capacidad fiscal de los gobiernos locales?
El pasado 16 de abril, nuestros docentes César Contreras y José Carlos Orihuela publicaron el artículo titulado “The fiscal resource curse: evidence from Peruvian municipalities” en la revista Mineral Economics (Q1 en Scopus).
En este trabajo se analiza si los auges de recursos naturales debilitan los esfuerzos de recaudación local en el Perú. A partir del caso de las transferencias mineras, el estudio muestra que estos ingresos redujeron la recaudación del impuesto predial entre 2009 y 2019, especialmente durante el auge de precios de inicios de la década de 2010 y en municipalidades con ingresos mineros más estables.
Abstract
Do natural resource booms weaken local revenue efforts? This paper examines the fiscal resource curse hypothesis using data from Peru, where subnational governments rely heavily on mining taxes that are centrally collected and redistributed to producing regions. The findings indicate that mining transfers weakened locally generated property taxes between 2009 and 2019. The effects are heterogeneous, with stronger impacts during the first half of the period—coinciding with the commodity price boom of the early 2010s—and in municipalities with more stable mining revenues. Exploring the underlying mechanisms, we show that cadastral systems play an important role; that higher mining revenues reduces the likelihood of strengthening administrative capacities; that reductions in property tax revenues are larger when municipalities receive very large transfers; and that mayors reduce taxes to improve their electoral prospects. The observed decline in local fiscal and bureaucratic capacity is consistent with the political resource curse hypothesis, whereby short-term incentives and rent-seeking behavior intensify during resource booms.
🔗 Más información sobre el artículo, aquí.