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¿Deberían los bancos centrales de mercados emergentes fijar la meta de inflación en la capital o en agregados nacionales?
Nuestro profesor Ricardo Quineche, y el jefe de prácticas José Aguilar Muñiz son autores del artículo académico Regional inflation spillovers and monetary policy design, publicado en Journal of Policy Modeling (Q1 en Scopus).
Abstract
Should emerging market central banks anchor inflation targeting to capital cities or national aggregates? Peru's Central Reserve Bank has achieved Latin America's lowest inflation (2.96 % average annual between 2001 and 2024) using Lima's CPI—an uncommon choice raising equity concerns. Using frequency-domain spillover analysis on monthly data (2002–2024) across nine regions, we find Lima dominates long-run transmission (NET: 27.23 pp) but absorbs short-run agricultural shocks. We recommend maintaining Lima-centered targeting while integrating upstream food-region signals into forecasts and developing crisis-adaptive frameworks. These findings validate Peru's approach and provide actionable guidance for spatially heterogeneous inflation-targeting economies.
🔗 Más información sobre el artículo, aquí.